莱特币

PriceAnalysis5/15:BTC,ETH,XRP,BCH,BSV,LTC,BNB,EOS,XTZ,XLM
作者source   时间2021-04-08   

Amonthafterthefirsthalving,Bitcoin(BTC)movedupby7%butfollowingthesecondhalving,thepriceslippedby10%inamonth.Thissuggeststhatifhistoryweretorepeatitself,thetop-rankedcryptocurrencyonCoinMarketCapwillremainvolatilebutalargemoveineitherdirectionisunlikelyinthefirstmonth.However,thederivativesmarketscouldbegivingasignalthatthistimeisdifferent.

ThisweekCMEBitcoinoptionsopeninterestincreasedtoabout$142million,anincreaseofover1000%sincetheendofApril,accordingtodatafromSkew.Thisshowsthattheoptionstradersareexpectingasharpmoveinpricewithinthenextfewdays.

Thereareapproximately$661.7millionworthoflongpositionsopen,comparedto$252millioninshortpositions,onthethreemajorfuturesexchanges.ThissuggeststhatthefuturestradersareholdingontotheirlongpositionsastheyareconfidentthatBitcoincouldsoonbreakabovethepsychologicalbarrierof$10,000.

Dailycryptocurrencymarketperformance.Source:Coin360

MurmursofnegativeinterestrateshavealsoincreasedintheU.S.andareportbyStackFundssuggeststhatifnegativeratesbecomeareality,institutionalinvestorswouldbeforcedtolookforalternativeassetstogeneratehigherreturns.

WithBitcoinoutperformingtheU.S.stockmarketsbyawidemarginanddoublinggold’sgainsyear-to-date,institutionalinterestislikelytorise.

ThefundamentalsofBitcoincontinuetopaintabullishpictureandthederivativestradersarealsoexpectingatrenddefiningmovetostartsoon.

Let’sstudythechartstospotthecriticallevelsthatcouldindicatethestartofanewtrendinmajorcryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin(BTC)ralliedsharplyinthepastthreedaysandreachedahighof$9,941.68onMay14.However,thebearsareunwillingtoallowthebullstohaveafieldday.Currentlythereisstiffresistancenear$10,000.

BTC–USDdailychart.Source:Tradingview

Nevertheless,thebullscontinuetobuythedips,whichisapositivesign.Bothmovingaver**esareslopingupandtherelativestrengthindexisabove60level,whichsuggeststhatthebuyershavetheupperhand.

IftheBTC/USDpaircanconsolidatebetween$9,200-$10,000levelsforafewdays,itwillincreasethepossibilityofabreakoutandrallytowardstheresistancelineofthesymmetricaltrianglearound$10,600.

Thisbullishviewwillbeinvalidatedifthepairturnsdownandbreaksbelow$9,200.Thatcandr**thepairtothe20-dayexponentialmovingaver**e($8,851)andbelowittotheuptrendline.Abreakbelowthissupportwillbethefirstindicationthatbullsarelosingtheirgrip.Apossiblechangeintrendwillbesignaledonabreakbelow$8,130.58.

TraderscankeepaneyeonthedevelopingbearishdivergenceontheRSI,whichisanegativesign.

Ether(ETH)climbedabovethe20-dayEMA($197)onMay13andreachedthedowntrendlineonMay14.Althoughthebearsareattemptingtodefendthedowntrendline,thebullshavenotgivenupmuchground.

ETH–USDdailychart.Source:Tradingview

Ifthe2nd-rankedcryptocurrencyonCoinMarketCapbouncesoffthe20-dayEMAandbreaksabovethedowntrendline,arallyto$227.097ispossible.Thiscouldpresentabuyingopportunityfortraders.

However,iftheETH/USDpairbreaksbelowthe20-dayEMAandthesupportlineoftheascendingchannel,adropto$176.103islikely.Abreakbelowthiscriticalsupportcansignalthestartofadowntrend.

XRPbouncedoffthecriticalsupportat$0.buthitawallatthe20-dayEMA($0.20).Thissuggeststhatbuyingdriesupathigherlevels.Ifthepriceturnsdownfromthecurrentlevelsandbreaksbelowthe50-daysimplemovingaver**e,adropto$0.islikely.

XRP–USDdailychart.Source:Tradingview

Conversely,ifthebullspropelthe3rd-rankedcryptocurrencyonCoinMarketCapabovethe20-dayEMA,amovetothedowntrendlineispossible.Thislevelmight**ainactasaresistancebutifcrossed,arallyto$0.islikely.

Asbothmovingaver**esareflatandtheRSIiscloseto50levels,thissuggestsabalancebetweenthebullsandbears.Hence,traderscanwaitonthesidelinesuntilthebullsindicatethattheyarebackincommand.

BitcoinCash(BCH)isfacingresistanceatthe20-dayEMA($243).Ifthepriceturnsdownfromthislevel,thebearswillattempttosinkthealtcoinbacktowards$200.

BCH–USDdailychart.Source:Tradingview

Conversely,abreakabovethe20-dayEMAcandrivethe5th-rankedcryptocurrencyonCoinMarketCapto$280.47.

Theflatmovingaver**esandRSIclosetothemidpointsuggestsabalancebetweensupplyanddemand.Thenexttrendingmoveislikelytostartonlyonabreakoutof$280.47oronabreakbelow$200.Untilthen,theBCH/USDpairislikelytoremainrange-bound.

ThebounceinBitcoinSV(BSV)hasstalledclosetothe20-dayEMA($196).Bothmovingaver**esareflatandtheRSIisjustbelowthemidpoint,whichsuggestsabalancebetweensupplyanddemand.Ifthepriceturnsdownfromthe20-dayEMA,aretestof$170willbeonthecards.

BSV–USDdailychart.Source:Tradingview

Conversely,abreakabovethe20-dayEMAcancarrythe6th-rankedcryptocurrencyonCoinMarketCapto$227.

TheBSV/USDpairisinawell-definedrange.Hence,thebestplacetoinitiateatradeistobuynearthesupportandsellneartheresistance.Anotherpossibilitycouldopenupafterthepairbreaksoutoftherange,asitwillindicatethepossiblestartofanewtrendingmove.Untilthen,tradersshouldtradewithcaution.

Thereboundoffthecriticalsupportat$39isfacingresistanceatthe20-dayEMA($44.42).Thissuggeststhatbuyingdriesupathigherlevels.Withbothmovingaver**esflatandtheRSIbelowthemidpoint,Litecoin(LTC)islikelytoconsolidateforafewdays.

LTC–USDdailychart.Source:Tradingview

Ifthe7th-rankedcryptocurrencyonCoinMarketCapturnsdownfromthecurrentlevels,aretestof$39ispossible.Ifthepricebouncesoffthissupportonce**ain,itcouldofferabuyingopportunity.

Ontheupside,ifthebullscanpushthepriceabovethe20-dayEMA,amovetothedowntrendlineandthento$50.7864-$52.2803zoneispossible.

BinanceCoin(BNB)hasbeenrange-boundbetween$18.1377-$13.65forthepastfewdays.Thesharpbounceoffthesupportoftherangehascarriedthealtcointo$16.30whichisactingasaresistance.

BNB–USDdailychart.Source:Tradingview

Thissuggeststhatthebearsarelikelytomountastiffresistancebetween$16.30andthedowntrendline.Ifthe8th-rankedcrypto-assetonCoinMarketCapturnsdownfromthislevel,adropto$13.65ispossible.

Conversely,abreakabovethedowntrendlinewillclearthepathforamovetotheresistanceoftherangeat$18.1377.Abreakoutoftherangewillbeapositivemoveasitwillresumetheupmovetowards$21.50.

EOSisattemptingtobreakoutofthedowntrendline.Ifsuccessful,anupmoveto$2.8319islikely.Thisisanimportantleveltowatchoutforbecauseifthealtcointurnsdownfromhere,itwillbeatriskofformingtherightshoulderofabearishheadandshoulderspattern.

EOS–USDdailychart.Source:Tradingview

Thissetupwillcompleteonabreakdownandclose(UTCtime)below$2.3314.Ifthathappens,itwillbeahugenegativebecausetheH&Spatternhasatargetobjectiveof$1.5524.

Bothmovingaver**esareflatandtheRSIisclosetothecenter,indicatingabalancebetweensupplyanddemand.

Ifthebullscanpropelthe9th-rankedcryptocurrencyonCoinMarketCapabove$2.8319,arallyto$3.1104-$3.1802resistancezoneispossible.Abovethiszone,theEOS/USDpairislikelytopickupmomentum.

Tezos(XTZ)isatacriticallevelasthepriceisgettingsqueezedbetweenthe20-dayEMA($2.58)andthesupportlineoftheascendingchannel.Abreakoutandclose(UTCtime)abovethe20-dayEMAislikelytoresumetheupmove.

XTZ–USDdailychart.Source:Tradingview

Thefirsttargetontheupsideisthedowntrendlineandaboveit,therallycanextendtothe$3.-$3.2712resistancezone.Therefore,abreakabovethe20-dayEMAcanofferabuyingopportunitytothetraders.

Conversely,ifthebearssinkthe10th-rankedcryptocurrencyonCoinMarketCapbelowthesupportlineoftheascendingchannel,aretestof$2.24ispossible.Abreakbelowthislevelcouldstartadowntrend.

StellarLumens(XLM)remainsinanuptrendbutthebearshavebeendefendingtheuptrendlineforthepastthreedays.However,thepositivethingisthatthebullshavenotgivenupmuchgroundandhavekeptthepriceabovethe20-dayEMA($0.067).

XLM–USDdailychart.Source:Tradingview

Soon,thebullsarelikelytomakeanotherattempttodrivethe11th-rankedcryptocurrencyonCoinMarketCapabovetheuptrendline.Ifsuccessful,theupmoveislikelytoresumewiththefirsttargetbeing$0.andthen$0..

Conversely,iftheXLM/USDpairturnsdowneitherfromthedowntrendlineorfromthecurrentlevelsandbreaksbelowthe20-dayEMA,aretestof$0.060ispossible.Abreakbelowthislevelwillsignalapossiblechangeintrend.

TheviewsandopinionsexpressedherearesolelythoseoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofCointelegraph.Everyinvestmentandtradingmoveinvolvesrisk.Youshouldconductyourownresearchwhenmakingadecision.

MarketdataisprovidedbyHitBTCexchange.

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